Champions League

The Supercomputer knows who will win the 2025-26 Champions League

The 2025-26 Champions League season is just around the corner, with 36 clubs set to battle it out for the most prestigious trophy in European football. According to the latest predictions from sports analytics giant Opta, the defending champions, Paris Saint-Germain, are not the favorites to retain their title. After 10,000 simulations, the supercomputer has designated its top contenders.

Based on a detailed article from GiveMeSport, we'll reveal which teams are the most likely to win the trophy and which are at the bottom of the pile.

The Bottom of the pack (36th-21st place)

Some massive clubs didn't even make the top 20 in terms of their chances of winning. Dutch giants Ajax, who are struggling on both the continental and domestic stage, are not considered favorites. Similarly, Galatasaray, despite making significant summer signings like Leroy Sané and Victor Osimhen, also failed to crack the top 20, as did Marseille, Villarreal, and Monaco. Interestingly, Monaco was the last French club to play in a Champions League final, back in 2004, where they were defeated.

At the very bottom of the list are newcomers like Kazakh side Kairat Almaty, along with Pafos, Qarabag, and Bodo/Glimt. In fact, every team in this group except for the Norvegian club failed to win the trophy in any of the 10,000 simulations.

The rising contenders (20th-16th place)

Heading up the top 20 list is Atalanta, with a mere 0.6% chance of winning the title. They're joined by two-time winners Juventus, who also have the same low probability, which is unsurprising given their tough schedule with away trips to Real Madrid and Monaco, as well as hosting Dortmund, Sporting, and Benfica.

Atlético Madrid, who have eliminated Real Madrid 15 times, also received only a 0.6% chance. Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting round out the bottom of this ranking with 0.7% and 0.8% chances, respectively—they lifted the trophy in just 70 and 80 of the simulations.

List of title chances (20th-16th place):

• 20th. Atalanta (Chance to win: 0.6%)

• 19th. Juventus (Chance to win: 0.6%)

• 18th. Atlético Madrid (Chance to win: 0.6%)

• 17th. Bayer Leverkusen (Chance to win: 0.7%)

• 16th. Sporting (Chance to win: 0.8%)

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Source: https://theanalyst.com/ 

The surprise teams (15th-11th place)

Club Brugge is arguably the biggest surprise in this category. The Belgian side has a difficult schedule with tough away trips to Atalanta, Bayern Munich, and Sporting, and home games against Monaco, Barcelona, Arsenal, and Marseille. Despite this, the supercomputer predicted Brugge to win in nearly 90 of the simulations, which would be a historic achievement for the club.

The 2024 finalists, Borussia Dortmund, are ranked 14th with a 0.9% chance. Tottenham Hotspur sits at 13th, under the management of Thomas Frank. After winning their first major trophy in 17 years last season (the Europa League), the Spurs' summer signings have them winning the title in 110 of the simulations.

Rounding out the list at 12th and 11th are Napoli (1.4%) and Benfica (1.7%), respectively.

List of title chances (15th-11th place):

• 15th. Club Brugge (Chance to win: 0.9%)

• 14th. Borussia Dortmund (Chance to win: 0.9%)

• 13th. Tottenham Hotspur (Chance to win: 1.1%)

• 12th. Napoli (Chance to win: 1.4%)

• 11th. Benfica (Chance to win: 1.7%)

The Champions League heavyweights (10th-6th place)

Newcastle United breaks into the top 10, receiving a greater chance of winning than several European giants. Their schedule is relatively favorable, aside from the opening match against Barcelona. They have a 3% chance of winning the trophy.

Newcastle is followed by Real Madrid, who surprisingly have only a 5.8% chance of winning according to the supercomputer, despite their historical dominance. Bayern Munich (4.3%) and Inter Milan (3%) are also given strong chances. Enzo Maresca's Chelsea side ranks 6th with a 7% chance of winning the tournament.

List of title chances (10th-6th place):

• 10th. Newcastle United (Chance to win: 3.0%)

• 9th. Inter Milan (Chance to win: 3.0%)

• 8th. Bayern Munich (Chance to win: 4.3%)

• 7th. Real Madrid (Chance to win: 5.8%)

• 6th. Chelsea (Chance to win: 7.0%)

The final favorites (5th-1st place)

Last season's semifinalists, Barcelona, are ranked 5th with an 8.4% chance. Pep Guardiola's Manchester City sits at 4th, with the same probability. The defending champions, Paris Saint-Germain, are in third with a 12.1% chance, but their schedule is incredibly tough.

The supercomputer's prediction places Mikel Arteta's Arsenal in second place, with a 16% chance of winning the title. However, the top spot goes to Liverpool. According to the Opta simulation, Liverpool will win the 2025-26 Champions League. With a strengthened squad that includes Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak, the supercomputer gives them a 20.4% chance of ultimate victory.

List of title chances (5th-1st place):

• 5th. Barcelona (Chance to win: 8.4%)

• 4th. Manchester City (Chance to win: 8.4%)

• 3rd. Paris Saint-Germain (Chance to win: 12.1%)

• 2nd. Arsenal (Chance to win: 16.0%)

• 1st. Liverpool (Chance to win: 20.4%)