UCL Analysis 2025-26

Author: Tamas | Updated: 2026. 02. 04. | Reading time: 7 min |  ✅ 

The newly formatted UEFA Champions League league phase has come to a close. After 144 matches, 487 goals, and immense drama, the Opta supercomputer has returned to work. Based on 10,000 simulations, it has analyzed who is most likely to lift the trophy this May in Budapest.

Last-Minute Drama: Mourinho Triumphs, Real Madrid Suffers

Matchday 8 delivered unbelievable moments. Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored a sensational last-second header, securing a spot in the top 24 for José Mourinho's side and knocking out Marseille. This goal also meant that the defending champions, Real Madrid, missed out on the direct Round of 16 qualification spots for the second consecutive year, forcing them into the knockout playoffs.

The Premier League's dominance remains undisputed. Arsenal made history as the first team in the new format to finish with a 100% record (8 wins in 8 matches). Alongside them, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester City all finished in the top eight, earning a well-deserved rest in the next round. They are joined by Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Sporting CP.

Who are the Favorites? According to Opta Data:

1. Arsenal (29.8% / 28.3%) Mikel Arteta's side is currently the absolute favorite of the supercomputer. Their flawless league phase performance and strong Premier League form have boosted their title winning probability to 29.8%. In nearly half of the simulations (47.1%), the Gunners reach the final in Budapest.

2. Bayern Munich (14.9% / 15.9%) In September, Vincent Kompany's team was given only a 4.3% chance. However, following their confident displays and a second-place finish in the league phase, they have emerged as the primary challengers to Arsenal.

3. Manchester City (10.5%) Pep Guardiola's squad secured their top-eight spot just in time with a victory over Galatasaray. While their odds have improved slightly, the draw will be challenging: they are likely to face either Real Madrid or Inter Milan in the Round of 16.

4. Liverpool (8.9% / 7.4%) Arne Slot's side started the season as favorites (20.4%), but fluctuating Premier League form and a slight dip in the Opta Power Rankings have seen them slide to fourth place.

5. Barcelona (7.0% / 8.8%) Hansi Flick's team secured their automatic qualification by coming from behind to beat Copenhagen. Their odds remain stable, though they have decreased slightly since the start of the season.

The Underperformers: PSG and Real Madrid

• PSG (5.1%): Despite last year's success, Luis Enrique's side struggled through the league phase once again. Forced into the playoffs, their chances of a repeat title have drastically diminished.

• Real Madrid (1.9% / 3.2%): In a shocking statistical turn, the 15-time winners are rated very low by the model. Currently, 11 teams have better statistical prospects for the trophy than the Spanish giants.

• Newcastle United (3.2%): Interestingly, the supercomputer views the "Magpies" as more likely winners than traditional powerhouses like Inter Milan or Real Madrid.

Summary

While Arsenal appears to be the most likely champion on paper, the knockout stages often defy statistics, relying on character, experience, and momentum. One thing is certain: the road to Budapest is more thrilling than ever.

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