The French Football Season Begins, The Battle Is On!

The excitement of the French football league continues with the 2025-26 season! The first round of Ligue 1 immediately offers several thrilling clashes that could fundamentally determine the start of the teams' seasons. But what can we expect? The Opta supercomputer's 10,000 simulations help answer the most important questions.

The Fight for the Title: PSG Dominance Expected

It's no surprise that Paris Saint-Germain are the top favorites for the title. According to the supercomputer, they have a 78.7% chance of winning, after making history last season by clinching a treble (Ligue 1, Coupe de France, Champions League). The key to their success was, among others, Ousmane Dembélé, who stood out with 21 goals and 27 assists. Other teams also have a chance at the title, but it's minimal: Lille received a 5.5% chance, and Monaco a 4.2% chance.

The Battle for Champions League Spots

The title race seems straightforward, but the fight for Champions League places is expected to be much tighter. According to the simulations, 17 teams have at least a 1% chance of finishing in the top four! Lille is the top favorite to finish in second place with a 51.4% chance, while Monaco is expected to be third. Marseille and Lyon both received a 43% chance of securing a top-four finish.

The Relegation Struggle

The newly promoted teams, Lorient, Paris FC, and Metz, are expected to face a tough fight for survival. According to the supercomputer, all three teams have more than a 30% chance of being relegated. Le Havre also had a close call last season and is expected to battle at the bottom of the table this year as well.

Final Simulated Table by the Supercomputer (Based on average points):

1. Paris Saint-Germain – 78.7

2. Lille – 58.8

3. Monaco – 57.8

4. Marseille – 56.5

5. Lyon – 56.5

6. Nice – 50.7

7. Strasbourg – 50.5

8. Lens – 49.4

9. Brest – 47.5

10. Rennes – 46.2

11. Toulouse – 44.6

12. Auxerre – 41.7

13. Nantes – 37.6

14. Angers – 35.5

15. Paris FC – 33.7

16. Le Havre – 33.5

17. Lorient – 33.5

18. Metz – 33.2

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Match Predictions: What to Expect on the Pitch

In addition to the simulations, here are the possible scenarios for the opening round, with explanations:

• Rennes - Olympique de Marseille: 1-1

  • Reasoning: A clash between two major rivals; tension is guaranteed. The home-field advantage favors Rennes, while Marseille's attacking strength is a serious threat. The match will likely end in a draw.

• Lens - Lyon: 2-1

  • Reasoning: Lens will take advantage of their home-field advantage with a disciplined, fighting performance to overcome Lyon, who are still finding their form.

• Monaco - Le Havre: 3-0

  • Reasoning: Monaco will be fighting for the title and cannot afford to slip up against a newly promoted team. A clear victory is expected.

• Nice - Toulouse: 1-0

  • Reasoning: Nice, building on their strong defense, is capable of securing a tight, one-goal victory against Toulouse.

• Brest - Lille: 1-2

  • Reasoning: Although Brest is a tough opponent at home, Lille's superior squad and attacking power will likely secure them the win.

• Angers - Paris FC: 2-0

  • Reasoning: Angers will use their home-field advantage to start the season with a victory against newly promoted Paris FC.

• Auxerre - Lorient: 1-1

  • Reasoning: A match between two promoted teams where both will be fighting for points. The match will likely end in a draw.

• Metz - Strasbourg: 0-2

  • Reasoning: Metz is still finding its footing in Ligue 1 after promotion, while Strasbourg, with its better players, will likely win the match.

• Nantes - PSG: 0-3

  • Reasoning: PSG is the absolute favorite for the title, and a simple, high-scoring victory against Nantes is expected.

Important Notice

All data and information in this article were available at the time of writing. We do not assume responsibility for any subsequent changes (e.g., injuries, suspensions, schedule changes, etc.). The tips provided herein are suggestions and predictions only and are not a guarantee or a binding guide. Sports betting involves risk, and the final decision and use of these tips are always the reader's own responsibility. Please note: we cannot take any responsibility for the published tips.

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