La Liga 2025-26: The Season Begins!

The excitement of the Spanish football league is back! The 2025-26 season is nearly upon us, kicking off with the Girona vs. Rayo Vallecano match on Friday.

Barcelona are the reigning champions, having won both the La Liga and Copa del Rey last season. It was a brilliant debut season for Hansi Flick, with two of his key attackers—Raphinha and teenage sensation Lamine Yamal—propelling themselves into Ballon d'Or contention. While Barça will build on last season's success, a new era begins for Real Madrid under the guidance of Xabi Alonso.

Atlético Madrid rounded out the traditional 'big three' last season, and Diego Simeone has been busy strengthening his squad this summer. Athletic Club, who finished fourth to secure a place in the Champions League for the first time since 2014-15, have made a statement by keeping their star winger, Nico Williams, while Villarreal is also back at Europe's top table.

Who Will Win La Liga?

Our model believes that Barcelona are the firm favorites to retain the title, with a 46.5% chance of winning. The club finished four points clear of second-placed Real Madrid last season, scoring an impressive 102 goals in the league. They were the only team in Europe's top five leagues to hit a century of league goals in the 2024-25 season.

Meanwhile, Real Madrid has a 32.1% chance of regaining the crown. Atlético Madrid's odds of winning their third league title under Simeone are just 11.7%. Villarreal (3.7%) and Athletic (2.9%) are the only other teams with a greater-than-2% chance of winning the title, but it's hard to see anyone outside of the established elite challenging for the trophy.

Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?

While the title race is once again limited to the big three, the competition for Champions League spots promises to be much more open. According to the model's simulations, 19 of the 20 La Liga clubs have at least a theoretical chance of finishing in the top four, which shows the depth of the field and the intensity of the competition.

The top five clubs in La Liga qualified for the Champions League last season, so a fifth-place finish may be enough once again. If that scenario repeats itself, then all 20 teams have hope of a Champions League berth.

Let's focus on the main contenders, however.

Villarreal and Athletic are expected to fight for fourth place – the "Yellow Submarine" has a 13.8% chance of making it, while the Basque club has a 13.2% chance.

Overall, Villarreal's chances of finishing in the top four, and thus participating in the Champions League, are 37.7%. Athletic's probability is 34.1%. 

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Source: https://theanalyst.com/

The Relegation Struggle

There are no overwhelming favorites for the drop, which is good news for the newly promoted trio of Real Oviedo, Elche, and Levante. However, our model predicts these three teams are most likely to be heading back to the second tier by the end of the season. Levante has the best chance of survival (70.6%), while Oviedo (32.6%) and Elche (32.6%) are likely to be relegated. Sevilla, after a decline over the last two years, is also in danger, with a 23.7% chance of going down.

Matchday Predictions: What to Expect on the Pitch

In addition to the simulations, here are the possible scenarios for the opening round, with explanations:

• Girona - Rayo Vallecano: 1-1

  • Reasoning: Girona finished 16th last year, while Rayo surprised everyone with an eighth-place finish. Both teams will play cautiously at the start of the season, and they will likely share the points.

• Villarreal - Real Oviedo: 3-0

  • Reasoning: Villarreal is a Champions League participant, while Oviedo is a newly promoted team fighting to avoid relegation. The difference in quality between the two teams is clear, and the home advantage for Villarreal will be decisive.

• Mallorca - FC Barcelona: 0-2

  • Reasoning: Although Mallorca is always a tough opponent at home, Barcelona's attacking power, led by Raphinha, Yamal, and Lewandowski, will be too strong.

• Alaves - Levante: 1-1

  • Reasoning: A meeting between two teams likely to finish in the bottom half of the table. We can expect a close, tight match that ends in a draw.

• Valencia - Real Sociedad: 1-0

  • Reasoning: Valencia is always dangerous at home. Real Sociedad underperformed last year, and Valencia could secure a narrow one-goal victory in front of their fans.

• Celta Vigo - Getafe: 2-0

  • Reasoning: Celta is a better team than Getafe, who barely avoided relegation. Celta Vigo will earn a confident victory at home.

• Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla: 2-1

  • Reasoning: Athletic is fighting for a Champions League spot, while Sevilla is battling relegation. Bilbao is in better form and will use their home advantage to secure a win in a high-scoring match.

• Espanyol - Atletico Madrid: 0-2

  • Reasoning: Atletico Madrid is fighting for the title, while Espanyol is trying to avoid relegation. Atletico, under Simeone's leadership, will secure a stable victory.

• Elche - Betis: 0-1

  • Reasoning: Elche is a relegation candidate, while Betis is a strong team competing for a European spot. Betis will likely win by a narrow margin.

• Real Madrid - Osasuna: 3-0

  • Reasoning: Real Madrid is a title contender, and Osasuna is a mid-table team. With Mbappé, Alonso, and Bellingham, Real Madrid will clearly win.

Important Notice

All data and information in this article were available at the time of writing. We do not assume responsibility for any subsequent changes (e.g., injuries, suspensions, schedule changes, etc.). The tips provided herein are suggestions and predictions only and are not a guarantee or a binding guide. Sports betting involves risk, and the final decision and use of these tips are always the reader's own responsibility. Please note: we cannot take any responsibility for the published tips.

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